Israel-Iran Conflict and Oil Prices
• Tensions spiked oil prices briefly (7% rise), but no major surge followed.
• Traders now react only to actual disruptions; U.S. oil output helped stabilize markets.
• Impact: Good for India’s import costs and inflation control.
US Tightens Student Visa Rules
• US now requires student visa applicants (F, M, J) to make social media accounts public.
• Raises privacy concerns and may deter international students.
• Impact: Indian students may explore alternative destinations like Australia, Germany.
World Bank Cuts Growth Forecast
• Global growth forecast for 2025 lowered to 2.3% (from 2.7%).
• India’s growth forecast cut to 6.3% for FY26.
• Impact: Export and FDI prospects may be affected.
Monetary Policy: Diverging Paths
• US Fed may cut interest rates in July; ECB already cut in June; Japan likely to hold.
• Impact: Fed rate cuts could ease capital pressures on emerging markets like India.
Record Heat in UK and Europe
• UK saw its warmest spring with 43% more sunshine; Europe faced extreme early-summer heat.
• Impact: Highlights global climate risks and the urgency of adaptation strategies for India.